CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2019-05-13T16:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2019-05-13T16:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14752/-1
CME Note: Signature is very weak and difficult to discern exact time. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: Around ~21 hrs on the May 16, there is a monotonic change in the magnetic field direction that can be associated with a flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T16:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2019 May 16 1230 UTC #-------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 90516 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 May 2019, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 May 2019 until 18 May 2019) SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4 SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2019 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 May 2019 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 18 May 2019 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 007 COMMENT: Alpha region NOAA 2741 produced a C2.0 flare peaking at 19:24 UT on May 15. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from region 2741, is estimated at 40%. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 400 and 460 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 420 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was directed predominantly away from the Sun, and its magnitude varied between about 2 and 10 nT, with current values around 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for extended periods. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected in the next days, with the expected arrival of the May 11, 12 and 13 CMEs. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to moderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-6) are possible on May 16 and 17, due to the expected arrival of the May 11, 12 and 13 CMEs. A return to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels is expected on May 18. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 22 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 May 2019 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 025 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 074 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 014 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 008 ESTIMATED ISN : 020, BASED ON 27 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BTLead Time: 53.25 hour(s)
Difference: 1.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2019-05-14T10:55Z
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